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Espionage % is way off

Anyone else notice that espi. rates of failures are way too high for what they should be?
So far today I have spied 21 targets.  The failure % ranged from 6% to 14% yet I am getting a 42.8% failure rate.

I have noticed the rates have been way too high for a while but now I'm keeping track.

If GGE would just be honest with what the chances of success/failure for espionage is, then I wouldn't have an issue.  It just stinks when there is an 8% chance of failure but it happens 3 times in a row.

Comments

  • Philt123 (GB1)Philt123 (GB1) GB1 Posts: 1,839
    yes its been this way for quite some time.  GGE of course choose not to comment.!
    Philt123 @ en 1
  • organza (US1)organza (US1) US1 Posts: 8
    I always knew it was too high, but I'm now at 45% rate of failure.  This is ridiculous.
  • neuterable (US1)neuterable (US1) US1 Posts: 757
    They hired the Technicus to do the Math.
    neuterable, shameless slaughterer of peasants, collector of princesses and fan of homestuck


    α ЯTFM ¿¿¿Want Free $tuff??? Then Go Write Santa a Letter ЯTFM Ω
  • Crom CruachCrom Cruach Community Manager Posts: 1,362
    Ah it is random therefore sometimes you will have a lower rate and sometimes a higher one. That is how randomness works.
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  • Philt123 (GB1)Philt123 (GB1) GB1 Posts: 1,839
    Yes but as the sample size increases in individual anolomies become flattened out and the Actual percentage should start to diverge and match up with the advertised percentage.  The larger the sample size the greater the corrolation until eventually once the sample size becomes large enough the actual expectation of the sample should be almost identical to the actual probability.  That is also how randomness works.

    And I think what the poster is saying that as his sample size is increasing his results are not diverging towards the advertised probability but are diverging towards a significantly lower probability, suggesting the advertised probability is incorrect.  

    Somethign that a number of posters over the years have commented on.    Have GGE tested the calcualtion of their advertised probabilities?  or is the assumption just that us stupid players must be wrong and we are simply not understanding how probability works, as your post suggests.






    Philt123 @ en 1
  • Crom CruachCrom Cruach Community Manager Posts: 1,362
    Yes we have @Philt123 (GB1) and thats why we provide you with a %.

    You can flip a coin 1000 times and you are unlikely to get exactly 500 heads or tails.
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  • MartenE3 (NL1)MartenE3 (NL1) NL1 Posts: 131
    edited 07.01.2020
    That is not the point @Philt123 (GB1) is making, the % should start to match up with the advertised percentage.
    When you flip a coin a thousand times it probably won't be 500 and 500, but it won't be very far off.
    If you get 700 heads and 300 tails then there definetely is something wrong.

  • Wasso (INT3)Wasso (INT3) INT3 Posts: 3,332
    As I recall, someone DID track many of these percentages and posted his results.  This would have been within the last year.  The results were in line with the advertised percentages.  We all get those times where every FL ESPY is successful, and then we get those times like posted above, where they fail 3 in a row on one, and then 2 times more on the next.  THESE we notice.  But, the next 30 in a row that succeed, we never remember.

    I will TRY to find the post I am referring to.  But, if someone else finds it first, my feelings will not be hurt.....
    Good night.
    Sleep well.
    I'll most likely kill you in the morning.




  • bernhardt (US1)bernhardt (US1) US1 Posts: 978
    @Philt123 (GB1)

    I believe you meant CONVERGE on the expected/advertised numbers as the sample size increased as converge means  getting closer.  Diverge means getting farther away from expected or more scattered.  Loose math definitions for anybody wishing to be pedantic.

    As to the advertised rates, I find them to be more accurate on things like rb, sams and nomads than I do on players and fl/bc.
  • Crom CruachCrom Cruach Community Manager Posts: 1,362
    That is not the point @Philt123 (GB1) is making, the % should start to match up with the advertised percentage.
    When you flip a coin a thousand times it probably won't be 500 and 500, but it won't be very far off.
    If you get 700 heads and 300 tails then there definetely is something wrong.

    No it only becomes statistically significant once it crosses that threshold, keep going to 10,000 flips and you'll start to see the overall result come closer to the %.
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  • Gunkle9 (US1)Gunkle9 (US1) US1 Posts: 3
    Yes we have @Philt123 (GB1) and thats why we provide you with a %.

    You can flip a coin 1000 times and you are unlikely to get exactly 500 heads or tails.


  • Gunkle9 (US1)Gunkle9 (US1) US1 Posts: 3
    Anyone with an IQ above 40 or even a 4th grade education knows about the percentage of a penny tossed x amount of times will rarely equal 50% heads or tails. HOWEVER, that does not mean that given a percentage of less then 10% chance of failure actually equals 75% to 85% chance of failure on a spy report, GOOD GAMES.

    With developers and management actually thinking this way. No wonder folks get upset. Apparently, Good Games hires folks with an IQ of less than 40.

    Now go back to your desks and stress out how to tell folks the truth that it is random and don't put yourselves into the hospital doing it.
  • EdMohrmann (US1)EdMohrmann (US1) US1 Posts: 127


                 Good Games hires folks with an IQ ?!?!?  STOP THE PRESSES !!

    EdMohrmann @ usa 1

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