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# Espionage % is way off

organza (US1)
US1 Posts:

**8**
Anyone else notice that espi. rates of failures are way too high for what they should be?

So far today I have spied 21 targets. The failure % ranged from 6% to 14% yet I am getting a 42.8% failure rate.

I have noticed the rates have been way too high for a while but now I'm keeping track.

If GGE would just be honest with what the chances of success/failure for espionage is, then I wouldn't have an issue. It just stinks when there is an 8% chance of failure but it happens 3 times in a row.

So far today I have spied 21 targets. The failure % ranged from 6% to 14% yet I am getting a 42.8% failure rate.

I have noticed the rates have been way too high for a while but now I'm keeping track.

If GGE would just be honest with what the chances of success/failure for espionage is, then I wouldn't have an issue. It just stinks when there is an 8% chance of failure but it happens 3 times in a row.

6

## Comments

1,8398757α ЯTFM ¿¿¿Want Free $tuff??? Then Go Write Santa a Letter ЯTFM Ω

1,361Community Manager ›1,839And I think what the poster is saying that as his sample size is increasing his results are not diverging towards the advertised probability but are diverging towards a significantly lower probability, suggesting the advertised probability is incorrect.

Somethign that a number of posters over the years have commented on. Have GGE tested the calcualtion of their advertised probabilities? or is the assumption just that us stupid players must be wrong and we are simply not understanding how probability works, as your post suggests.

1,361Community Manager ›You can flip a coin 1000 times and you are unlikely to get exactly 500 heads or tails.

131When you flip a coin a thousand times it probably won't be 500 and 500, but it won't be very far off.

If you get 700 heads and 300 tails then there definetely is something wrong.

3,332I will TRY to find the post I am referring to. But, if someone else finds it first, my feelings will not be hurt.....

Sleep well.

I'll most likely kill you in the morning.

978I believe you meant CONVERGE on the expected/advertised numbers as the sample size increased as converge means getting closer. Diverge means getting farther away from expected or more scattered. Loose math definitions for anybody wishing to be pedantic.

As to the advertised rates, I find them to be more accurate on things like rb, sams and nomads than I do on players and fl/bc.

1,361Community Manager ›33127Good Games hires folks with an IQ ?!?!? STOP THE PRESSES !!