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Spies not giving accurate loss chances

ThornPrickleyThornPrickley Posts: 668
edited 30.01.2013 in Technical Assistance
Recently, I have been spying on tons of Barbarians with 15 spies and a 13% chance to lose. So it says. I have failed to spy on them more than half of the time. I'll do it some more so you'll have some actual statistics.

Supposedly, If I spy 13 times, I will lose once or twice. I'm fairly certain I've lost more than that.

I can say It's not bad luck If I get statistics. I'll be back with statistics in a day or so.

Anyone else have the same problem?
Post edited by ThornPrickley on
I, AM BACK!

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Comments

  • xJadetsssxxJadetsssx Posts: 5,983
    edited 25.01.2013
    It's just about luck, there is not actual way to know if it's a bug or not, the failure chance is 13%, there is always a chance of failing.
    TD7ircx.png
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    Lurking the forums since 2011.
    xJadetsssx @ Ɩ ǝsɹǝʌıun
  • Ante55Ante55 Posts: 1,156
    edited 25.01.2013
    13% is actually a descent chance to fail

    You are not gonna believe what I am telling you but I failed 3 spy reports in a row with a 5% chance of failure on a robber baron king.
    Ante55 @ skn 1 "Really you are actually reading this?!" ?(

    Need info about RBCs? Click on this Link!
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    Also please use the search function!
  • Hal90002Hal90002 Posts: 89
    edited 25.01.2013
    I think perhaps you do not understand the law of probability. In the situation you have described there is a 13% chance of your spies being caught every time you send them on a mission and that figure does not diminish no matter how many times you have previously sent them. If you toss a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 10 times in a row there is still a 50% chance that it will come up heads next time.
    Hal9000 @ WWW 1
  • Ante55Ante55 Posts: 1,156
    edited 25.01.2013
    Hal90002 wrote: »
    I think perhaps you do not understand the law of probability. In the situation you have described there is a 13% chance of your spies being caught every time you send them on a mission and that figure does not diminish no matter how many times you have previously sent them. If you toss a coin 10 times and it comes up heads 10 times in a row there is still a 50% chance that it will come up heads next time.

    Extremely good point there

    A 13% chance is low but it still means the mission will fail.

    You just had really bad luck like me
    Ante55 @ skn 1 "Really you are actually reading this?!" ?(

    Need info about RBCs? Click on this Link!
    http://deathorgloryalliance.blogspot.in/

    Watch my new idea of a new event! Click on this link ! http://en.board.goodgamestudios.com/empire/showthread.php?59572-New-Event-The-Conquest-of-Forlarn-Valley&highlight=forlarn

    Also please use the search function!
  • magicsss17magicsss17 Posts: 549
    edited 27.01.2013
    agree this does happen... I have wondered about this sometimes though but being lazy myself haven't bothered to actually run stats off this. I have heard of extremly bad cases where people will faill with 10% 10 times in a row.

    the odds of that happening are 1 out 10,000,000,000 in theory this shouldn't happen, but in practicallity you can flip 10 heads in a row like stated above. to me this is the result of no true way of producing a random number. computers can not generate truly random numbers and depending on how badly the system is designed can produces results like this from time to time.

    sequences of numbers could also be set up which would explain this as well. to me that is more likely as to how some of these results appear.
    magicsss17 @ WWW 1
  • ThornPrickleyThornPrickley Posts: 668
    edited 27.01.2013
    Alright, I've run some statistics, with about 26 spy reports, I've lost about 5 times, It looks like I was just having some bad luck. XD I have my derp moments, too. If anyone else feels like the statistics of spies are wrong about any given percentage, I guess you could post it here.
    I, AM BACK!

    ?(A blue police box floating in space? Is it bigger on the inside? :D
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Do you know what this is from?
  • hampe182hampe182 Posts: 202
    edited 27.01.2013
    i wouldent say that 5 loss of 26 is bad luck, i would call it pretty lucky.
    hampe18 8)
    nordisk 1


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  • Ante55Ante55 Posts: 1,156
    edited 27.01.2013
    I would call that normal

    Do you guys get that feeling when you sent your spy 300 distance away, it takes hours and there is a 10% chance to get caught and when he arrives he does get caught and you have to wait for him to come back for about 5-8 hours.

    (My reaction)

    NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Ante55 @ skn 1 "Really you are actually reading this?!" ?(

    Need info about RBCs? Click on this Link!
    http://deathorgloryalliance.blogspot.in/

    Watch my new idea of a new event! Click on this link ! http://en.board.goodgamestudios.com/empire/showthread.php?59572-New-Event-The-Conquest-of-Forlarn-Valley&highlight=forlarn

    Also please use the search function!
  • AgentYAgentY Posts: 713
    edited 30.01.2013
    I usually spy on barbarians with 18% failure and i attack one everyday. Ive only failed once in these 2-3 weeks!

    Good luck!
    LegionOfKillers

    Not to be messed with


    International 2
    My reaction when I look at my enemies' castles after I attack them:
    "Stop! It's too bright!!"
    My original and new event idea: http://en.board.goodgamestudios.com/empire/showthread.php?64214-The-Banished-King-New-Event&highlight=banished+king
    Also, please use the search engine. There are hundreds of threads on one topic.

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