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Event guessing

The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
edited 14.04.2021 in The Chicken Coop
For those interested, here we can try and guess what events will come next, either hwe, chwe, fhwe or vf.

cc's don't really count as they come every 2nd event and are kinda predictable, and of course you can guess vf + fhwe :)

And so, without further ado, let's start!

I'll say a hwe - Hard Worker Event - is next :)
Post edited by The Best King (INT1) on


Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
«13

Comments

  • Twiglet (GB1)Twiglet (GB1) GB1 Posts: 1,173
    The game is too predictable, repetitive, Too boring to log on every day just to click click click the same old stuff for the same old event. No fun anymore !
    Moved On !
  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Maybe, there's are lot of different events and aspects to play in the game though :)


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Blossom (SKN1)Blossom (SKN1) SKN1 Posts: 537
    CC after silo :wink:


  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Chwe next! :)


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Dark Underworld (AU1)Dark Underworld (AU1) AU1 Posts: 2,992
    edited 26.04.2021
    who cares same old same old
  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Dark Underworld (AU1) said:
    who cares same old same old
    Well, i certainly care :)

    And as of a new development yesterday, if i'm right,  i should be able to accurately predict the order of hwe's and chwe's as well as vf's, though the vf's could be slightly unpredictable and whether the vf or fhwe counts for the fl is guesswork at best :)


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Dark Underworld (AU1)Dark Underworld (AU1) AU1 Posts: 2,992
    edited 27.04.2021
    it might be ok if they reduced number of CC by at LEAST half. BUT CC every 4 out of 7 days, HWE/CHWE with the odd FHWE or VF that count for FL

    BORING 

    it is easy to see on AU server that most are bored with CC amount of RP to get into top 5 co op now is decreasing all the time, I think it is down to around 15M RP to get top 5 now, it use to be a lot higher and only 2 co ops want to be in ML, so the rest of us let them have it...lol
  • RosyStarlingRosyStarling Moderator, ModGreen Posts: 3,615
    @Dark Underworld (AU1)

    Please keep you comments on topic -  guessing the order of event

    If you wish to complain about the events then add to the most current thread on that topic


      
  • Dark Underworld (AU1)Dark Underworld (AU1) AU1 Posts: 2,992
    @RosyStarling but this thread has been here for 2 weeks and NOBODY is guessing
  • RosyStarlingRosyStarling Moderator, ModGreen Posts: 3,615
    There is still zero need to turn into a different thread.

    If few want to guess then so be it.


      
  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Next event : chwe


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Blossom (SKN1)Blossom (SKN1) SKN1 Posts: 537
    The Best King (INT1) said:
    Next event : chwe
    I think it too :)


  • Dark Underworld (AU1)Dark Underworld (AU1) AU1 Posts: 2,992
    50/50 chance of being correct.  CHWE or HWE and both the same anyway
  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    edited 11.05.2021
    Blossom (SKN1) said:
    The Best King (INT1) said:
    Next event : chwe
    I think it too :)
    :):):)

    Dark Underworld (AU1) said:
    50/50 chance of being correct.  CHWE or HWE and both the same anyway

    True, true, and i did get my 1st guess wrong, but i think we'll just have to wait and see, and i have to remember to post my guesses as well :)

    Perhaps they are pretty similar, but they are not the same, and being able to accurately predict what will come next, hwe, chwe, or vf (+fhwe) is an advantage, however you look at it :)

    PS. While it is 50/50 pretty much for this one, if you don't consider any pattern or other knowledge that you might have about it, after this chwe (not counting cc's) for every hwe/chwe that goes by, there would be an increasing likelihood of a vf appearing, instead of a hwe/chwe, so not exactly 50/50 :)


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • ninjahuman (AU1)ninjahuman (AU1) AU1 Posts: 2,525
    Is the next event decided by some algorithm or is it decided by a person's decision?
    ninjahuman @ au 1

    Guides: Pleasure Park
  • Jenny1979 (GR1)Jenny1979 (GR1) GR1 Posts: 1,636
    edited 11.05.2021

    ninjahuman (AU1) said:
    Is the next event decided by some algorithm or is it decided by a person's decision?
    I would like to know the answer to this too...
    Cause I am a little confused here... is this the third time in a row we have CHWE? or am I mistaken here?
    shouldnt we have  a simple HWE??

                                
                                     
                                                                                                                                  made by farmerjohn22 (US1)
  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    edited 11.05.2021
    ninjahuman (AU1) said:
    Is the next event decided by some algorithm or is it decided by a person's decision?
    Well, that is a fairly hard question to answer, i don't know the exact answer, but i can say the events follow (in the time i've been collecting data) a predictable pattern, broken up by odd, unpredictable points where we get a vf + chwe, or 2 vf's with only 1 hwe in between them.

    I don't know whether that's human mistake, computer mistake or maybe even human intervention to spice up the events a bit more :D

    Jenny1979 (GR1) said:

    ninjahuman (AU1) said:
    Is the next event decided by some algorithm or is it decided by a person's decision?
    I would like to know the answer to this too...
    Cause I am a little confused here... is this the third time in a row we have CHWE? or am I mistaken here?
    shouldnt we have  a simple HWE??
    Yes, i know it seems that we've been having a lot of chwe's lately, well, that's because we are.

    This pattern goes so that if you take the right section of 5 hwe/chwe's, you get 4 chwe's and 1 hwe, and then the next 5 should be 4 hwe's and 1 chwe.

    Here's the last 4 hwe's/chwe's that i've recorded:

    chwe
    hwe
    chwe
    chwe - most recent (and current event)  


    Of course, the last chwe is the one we have right now, next (not counting vf's and cc's), we'll get 2 hwe's and then 1 chwe :)




    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Blossom (SKN1)Blossom (SKN1) SKN1 Posts: 537
    after the next CC I think it will be HWE :)



  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Blossom (SKN1) said:
    after the next CC I think it will be HWE :)

    Great, we're in agreement :)


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Exxy (INT1)Exxy (INT1) INT1 Posts: 2,602
    Yeah @The Best King (INT1) is pretty accurate so far :)

    @Dark Underworld (AU1)

    There is a good difference between normal HW and Coop HW :)

    The legendary catalysts are easier to grab in normal HW ! :)

  • Blossom (SKN1)Blossom (SKN1) SKN1 Posts: 537
    The Best King (INT1) said:
    Blossom (SKN1) said:
    after the next CC I think it will be HWE :)

    Great, we're in agreement :)
    Yes ;)


  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Next event: vf + fhwe (with vf counting for the fl)


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Blossom (SKN1)Blossom (SKN1) SKN1 Posts: 537
    VF :)


  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Oopsie, almost forgot to guess the next event :cold_sweat:

    Next event: Hard Worker Event


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Farmer Joe77 (US1)Farmer Joe77 (US1) US1 Posts: 106
    The next event will obviously be the CC, followed by HWE, then CC, then CHWE, then CC, then HWE, then CC, then VF & FHWE and I will really go out on a limb and say the FL is tied to the FHWE. I believe this has been the pattern we have seen lately.
  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Farmer Joe77 (US1) said:
    The next event will obviously be the CC, followed by HWE, then CC, then CHWE, then CC, then HWE, then CC, then VF & FHWE and I will really go out on a limb and say the FL is tied to the FHWE. I believe this has been the pattern we have seen lately.
    Quite an interesting prediction :)

    I will have to think on it a bit before i decide on whether the next non-cc event will be a hwe or chwe :)

    While i agree that the fhwe seems to be tied to the vf (FL?), i would say that we'll get only get 2 more hwe/chwe's before the next vf, as it seems to be going in a 3,2,3,2 pattern lately.

    And of course, i wouldn't be so sure of alternating hwe/chwe's, i will have to take a closer look at my data now that the pattern has been broken :)

    That being said, i'm hardly an expert, you have just as much a chance as me of being right, i guess we'll just have to wait and see :) 


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Farmer Joe77 (US1)Farmer Joe77 (US1) US1 Posts: 106
    I wish I had been charting the sequence but I have not written it down. I also know the sequence frequently changes. I guessed FL would be tied to FHWE only because the last time the VF was tied to the FL. The fair did seem to be very frequent in the not too distant past but lately it seems to be only half as often.

    Somehow I missed this topic or I would have been guessing since we always guess in our coop. I figured I would put in a bunch of guesses to make up for lost time :) We will see how long before I have to guess again.
  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Farmer Joe77 (US1) said:
    I wish I had been charting the sequence but I have not written it down. I also know the sequence frequently changes. I guessed FL would be tied to FHWE only because the last time the VF was tied to the FL. The fair did seem to be very frequent in the not too distant past but lately it seems to be only half as often.

    Somehow I missed this topic or I would have been guessing since we always guess in our coop. I figured I would put in a bunch of guesses to make up for lost time :) We will see how long before I have to guess again.
    Oh, i see what you mean, right, yeah, i would bet on you being right with the fhwe counting for the fl next time it comes around :)

    Huh, nice :D


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • The Best King (INT1)The Best King (INT1) INT1 Posts: 883
    Hmmm, well, the pattern that i've been following seems to have been broken....

    Anyway, i've reviewed the data that i have, and although it's not a very educated guess at all, i would say:

    Next event: Hard Worker Event

    Let's hope i'm right :D


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • Farmer Joe77 (US1)Farmer Joe77 (US1) US1 Posts: 106
    That is my guess, I would be quite surprised if it was not the regular HWE next. After that the predicting gets tougher.

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