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Wheel of Fortune - Is it random?

While this applies to both the main and bonus wheels, I'm mainly focusing on the bonus wheel.

The bonus wheel is divided into 6 sections and so you'd expect a 1 in 6 chance of landing on an item. The use of the wheel suggests the outcome should be random and there is no disclaimer (that i'm aware of) to suggest that we shouldn't expect anything other than a random outcome.

I'm intersted to know if other players think the outcome is random and of course i'd like to get an offical reply about this event as well.
aussie_mark @ au 1

Comments

  • I've never thought it was random. Like carnival wheels, it will land on various prizes a percentage of times.  The top prize, obviously, will occur a smaller percentage of times v. the lowest prize which would occur a higher percentage of times.  
    Interestng, if for example the wheel was spun 600 times, I would expect it to land on each of the 6 prizes 100 times each. You wouldn't expect that?

    aussie_mark @ au 1
  • qewt (US1)qewt (US1) US1 Posts: 161
    edited 13.03.2018
    you would expect that but that is not the case.

    the lesser prizes have a much higher chance of coming up than say, rep points, gold, or skins. Even though they are all allotted 1 slot in the wheel each, that does not matter.

    I will edit this post with information gathered by one Southern (US1) - he has made extensive spreadsheets that detail the data.

    edit: here it is: https://community.goodgamestudios.com/bigfarm/en/discussion/173113/wwc-wheel-of-fortune-stats

    this is for the WWC WOF, but you can expect similar for the CC WOF, normal WOF, etc.
  • aussie_mark (AU1)aussie_mark (AU1) Posts: 211
    edited 13.03.2018
    Thanks, I'm aware of the post that Southern (US1) had produced, that along with my own experiences with the wheel have prompted me to ask the question is it random.

    Whether its a wheel of fortune (vertical) or roulette wheel (horizontal) the outcome should be random, if its not then the question needs to be asked why not? Is there a disclaimer that says the outcome is not random or are players having their pockets picked in a rigged event?

    Players have a difficult enough time with this game as it is. I'm just trying to find out if the Wheel of Fortune is an honest event and if not, why not?
    aussie_mark @ au 1
  • qewt (US1)qewt (US1) US1 Posts: 161
    edited 13.03.2018
    I had made a post in the suggestion section that was very similar.

    I said that either the percentage of chance for each prize should be posted somewhere in the WOF, or else the WOF sprite should be changed so that the number of slots each prize has reflects the percent chance of it coming up.

    i.e. if flowers come up 12/18 times they should be given 12 out of 18 slots on the WOF, and if the the Gold Mining License comes up 1/18 times it should have 1 slot out of 18 on the WOF.

    edit: Southerns information proves it is not random, so there is that.
  • ninjahuman (AU1)ninjahuman (AU1) AU1 Posts: 2,347
    As mentioned above, not all items have an equal chance of getting that item per spin. This is also true with mystery boxes and has even been confirmed by a staff member.
    ninjahuman @ au 1

  • i.e. if flowers come up 12/18 times they should be given 12 out of 18 slots on the WOF, and if the the Gold Mining License comes up 1/18 times it should have 1 slot out of 18 on the WOF.


    From Southern's data the gold licence came up once out of 79 spins (1/79). If they changed the sprite to reflect the chance of winning a gold licence, the sprite would be all but invisible.

    aussie_mark @ au 1
  • qewt (US1)qewt (US1) US1 Posts: 161
    edited 13.03.2018

    i.e. if flowers come up 12/18 times they should be given 12 out of 18 slots on the WOF, and if the the Gold Mining License comes up 1/18 times it should have 1 slot out of 18 on the WOF.


    From Southern's data the gold licence came up once out of 79 spins (1/79). If they changed the sprite to reflect the chance of winning a gold licence, the sprite would be all but invisible.

    But it would then be an honest event... my way of encouraging them to change those stats? (an invisible sprite would be a good visual aid for how ridiculous they are being)

    the serious suggestion was to post the percentages somewhere in the WOF.
  • They could let the results be random, that would be 1 way of providing and honest event.

    Otherwise publish the last 600 results (live data) and let the players decide whether to spin or not.
    aussie_mark @ au 1
  • aussie_mark (AU1)aussie_mark (AU1) Posts: 211
    edited 13.03.2018
    The wheel is random, just not random with EVEN DISTRIBUTION. Means that the chances for all prices are not the same. The oposite of random is deterministic - meaning that you know exactly what price you will get before turning the wheel. 

    In other words, the wheel is divided into equal parts, but in reality, it should be divided into unequal parts - the area for less likely prices should be smaller and the area for more likely prices should be larger.

    So, I would say that wheel is fair, just its "phyisical appearance" is misleading.


    EXAMPLE of random, but not evenly distributed event: -Throwing two dices at the same time. You can get all numbers from 2 to 12, but not with the same chance. There is 6 times greater chance to get 7 then 2, as you can get 7 on 6 different ways: 1 and 6, 2 and 5, 3 and 4, 4 and 3, 5 and 5, 6 and 1 and you can get 2 just one way: 1 and 1. We are still talking about the random event, just not evenly distributed random event.

    Most random events are not evenly distributed. For example Gausian and Poassonic distributions are very common. 
    I'm not really sure how your "throwing two dices" applies here, because we are not throwing two dice, we a spinning a wheel, where there is a 1 in 6 chance of any prize coming up, unless is programmed not to be that way.

    Fair but misleading? I dont think it should be misleading at all. Visually the wheel looks like the results will be random, without some disclaimer that the result are not random, its cheating.

    Post edited by aussie_mark (AU1) on
    aussie_mark @ au 1
  • qewt (US1)qewt (US1) US1 Posts: 161
    edited 13.03.2018
    any 'random' thing a computer generates uses some algorithm, most random things use some algorithm, gamblers try to crack them all the time, even for things like the lotto. aaabbb is correct about the definition of random, and her two disc example is just one kind of randomizing algorithm that can be used, albeit a very simple one.

    I don't think she is right when she says that it is fair, however, because there is no way for a player to know that the chances are not equal except by spending the tokens they have and witnessing the frequency with which they keep getting flowers, and the infrequency with which they get better prizes. To be fair, it should be clear what the chances are of getting any given prize. A disclaimer that the sprite is not representative of the actual chances should be a bare minimum considering the company sells tokens for gold.

    edit: for pronouns.
    Post edited by qewt (US1) on
  • aaabbb1 (INT1)aaabbb1 (INT1) INT1 Posts: 1,049
    edited 13.03.2018
    The wheel is random, just not random with EVEN DISTRIBUTION. Means that the chances for all prices are not the same. The oposite of random is deterministic - meaning that you know exactly what price you will get before turning the wheel. 

    In other words, the wheel is divided into equal parts, but in reality, it should be divided into unequal parts - the area for less likely prices should be smaller and the area for more likely prices should be larger.

    So, I would say that wheel is fair, just its "phyisical appearance" is misleading.


    EXAMPLE of random, but not evenly distributed event: -Throwing two dices at the same time. You can get all numbers from 2 to 12, but not with the same chance. There is 6 times greater chance to get 7 then 2, as you can get 7 on 6 different ways: 1 and 6, 2 and 5, 3 and 4, 4 and 3, 5 and 5, 6 and 1 and you can get 2 just one way: 1 and 1. We are still talking about the random event, just not evenly distributed random event.

    Most random events are not evenly distributed. For example Gausian and Poassonic distributions are very common. 
    I'm not really sure how your "throwing two dices" applies here, because we are not throwing two dice, we a spinning a wheel, where there is a 1 in 6 chance of any prize coming up, unless is programmed not to be that way.

    Fair but misleading? I dont think it should be misleading at all. Visually the wheel looks like the results will be random, without some disclaimer that the result are not random, its cheating.

    I am not takling about the WOF here, mere explaining what the word "random" means, as above posts a bit confusing as they are using the word "random" in a wrong way.

    By "fair" I mean, that I do not belive, that there is a guy somewhere who decides if someone is going to get a mining licence or not  (which not being random means) or  that the mining licence is imposible to get. And that there is actualy no reason why the distribution should be equal in the first place.

    But I do agree that chances of getting all prices are not equal and that the graphics of the wheel is misleading in that sence. Why it is done that way, I do not know. Probably because GGS wanted to keep a random distribution they used as a secret (they talked many times in the past, that  they like to keep some formulas secret for various reasons, one being of giving players a joy of guessing it as part of the strategical planing.) The way around would be to use some different graphics that does not propose equal distribution like slot machines for example. This can be a suggestion, but with so many things being wrong and being planed, I do not think this one will be at theirs priority list. But who knows, we did get a cat after four years of begging for it, after all.

    And I do agree with @qewt (US1), that a simple disclaimer sentence in the way he/she proposes, can be implemented before  better grafical solution if found. 
    (B.T.W. @qewt (US1) , I am a she ;) )


  • Tinzen (SKN1)Tinzen (SKN1) SKN1 Posts: 473
    Anything that is not predicted - like the WOF's - is randorm in varies cases. There will always be a bigger pertence to some things/wins than others.

    Now, I am not the biggest math geni around here, but when I was a kiddo here, there was a program called - Wheel of Fortune (funny..?) - and from what I can recall of it, then even one had landed on "broke", then the next also could do that (even there was only 1 og 2 of them), and much more spots than there is in this WoF, then it is compareable. 
    Tinzen @ skn 1
  • artful (US1)artful (US1) US1 Posts: 6,514
    edited 13.03.2018
    I've never thought it was random. Like carnival wheels, it will land on various prizes a percentage of times.  The top prize, obviously, will occur a smaller percentage of times v. the lowest prize which would occur a higher percentage of times.  
    Interestng, if for example the wheel was spun 600 times, I would expect it to land on each of the 6 prizes 100 times each. You wouldn't expect that?

    No, I'm saying such wheels of chance usually are set up using percentages ... but even if they weren't, in a perfect scientific set up, unlimited rolls of the die, for example, would not yield each of them coming up 1/6 of the time.
    Post edited by artful (US1) on
    .


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    https://community.goodgamestudios.com/bigfarm/en/discussion/158239/just-want-to-be-left-alone-to-farm-in-peace-us1-hearts-of-gold

  • Here is a possible algorithm for the WOF:
    - with every spin, generate a random number between 1 - 100:
         - is the number between 1 - 40 - win wildflowers
         - is the number between 41-60 - win fertilizer
         - is the number between 61 - 70 - win money
         - is the number between 71- 85  - win tokens
         - is the number between 86 -  99 - win deco
         - is the number between 99 - 100 - win gold licence

    Also, something that a lot of people don't really understand, is how percentages work.

    If I have a wheel with only two options, option A and option B, that means that each one has a 50% chance to drop when I spin, however, with each spin that chance resets. So, when I spin the 1st time: there is a 50% chance option A will drop. I spin a 2nd time, there are still 50% chances option A will drop... Even though there is a 50% chance of drop for my option, I could be spinning 10 times and still get only option A. Basically, each option has an equal amount of chance to drop, but nothing guarantees that after 10 spins I will get 5A and 5B.

    If the devs went down the percentage route, then I would image the gold licence has a 2 maybe 3% drop (or something like that). It's a small chance you will get it, but you could get it even on your first special round spin (I had 8 tokens once and spun the wheel and got the gold license on the special round, so, it's possible).

    Hope that makes sense.
  • The issue I have with the wheel is that it misleads the player. The wheel is divided into 6 equal pieces so without any disclaimer you assume there are equal odds of all prizes coming up. From my own experience that is not the case. When you look at the data Southern collected (link in a post above) you see that the gold licence came up twice in 158 spins or 1.27%. 1/6 of 158 would suggest you'd expect 26 gold licences (give or take, after all its a gamble).

    To make this a better/fair event I believe 1 of 3 things need to occur.

    1. A disclaimer stating the odds of winning prizes are not equal and publish those odds.
    or
    2. The size of the pie slice needs to be adjusted to visually show your chance of winning.
    or
    3. Use an algorithm that is not biased so the odds of winning are representive of what you see visually. 
    aussie_mark @ au 1
  • Uncle John (AU1)Uncle John (AU1) AU1 Posts: 8,581
    I understand where you're coming from but half the fun of this game for me is working out how it really works and playing accordingly.
    The relationship between happiness and production costs is completely non-linear, the first few decos drop prod.costs by 10% but to get from -96% to -97% takes hundreds of points of happiness.
    Most products are more profitable than their ingredients but olive oil is worth a fraction of the olives needed to make it.
    I can do over half the temp. farm book tasks for around $7,000,000 but to finish the rest needs nearer $100,000,000.
    I'm sure there are lots of other examples where the mechanics are not obvious, why pick on this one ?

       
  • humpty (AU1)humpty (AU1) AU1 Posts: 16
    i know i have spun that bonus wheel hundreds of times and never won a gold certificate...totally rigged!! the only reason to persist is the fertilizer and some of the boxes on the first spins have gold in them 
  • me too, i have spun the wheel countless times and only won gml less than 2-3 times, i've also never won an appearance either. i never though it was random, ggs would never just hand out gold like that.

    I understand where you're coming from but half the fun of this game for me is working out how it really works and playing accordingly.
    The relationship between happiness and production costs is completely non-linear, the first few decos drop prod.costs by 10% but to get from -96% to -97% takes hundreds of points of happiness.
    Most products are more profitable than their ingredients but olive oil is worth a fraction of the olives needed to make it.
    I can do over half the temp. farm book tasks for around $7,000,000 but to finish the rest needs nearer $100,000,000.


    I'm sure there are lots of other examples where the mechanics are not obvious, why pick on this one ?
    true there are lots of things that are weird with big farm, like why was there a second Oktoberfest in November? why does the candy hunt/mushroom stew give crappy rewards while valentines and Easter have quite reasonable deco's? (i know they'll say it's because valentine/Easter only comes around once a year but we all know they're cheapskates) why is the timing always off with a lot of events? why is there communication so bad? all answers we will probably never get an answer to.


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)
  • humpty (AU1)humpty (AU1) AU1 Posts: 16
    well it's good to hear you have had a win..there's hope yet...now that you mention it the second Oktoberfest was a surprise...thought it was an error so i didn't participate lol.....the underlying answer for all questions is that this is a money making platform..give to much away and you don't make as much money...me though i'm a free loader who hasn't spent a cent on gold..so i can't complain  :)
  • well it's good to hear you have had a win..there's hope yet...now that you mention it the second Oktoberfest was a surprise...thought it was an error so i didn't participate lol.....the underlying answer for all questions is that this is a money making platform..give to much away and you don't make as much money...me though i'm a free loader who hasn't spent a cent on gold..so i can't complain  :)



    i know, it's a money making platform, but for a company that wants to make money, their not treating the people that give them the money very well.


    Made by Jonquille6 (FR1)

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