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Criticism: What?! How did that Happen? (Horse Stats)

I just can't believe I just lost with this statistics:

MY ODDS OF WINNING : 81.99
Competitor's Odds of Winning: 18.01

Guess who won?
What.png
Post edited by kulaniko (INT1) on

Comments

  • Uncle John (GB1)Uncle John (GB1) GB1 Posts: 11,004
    edited 29.06.2015
    Why not?
    18% is almost 1 in 5
    This was the 1! :(
  • Mina0o (INT1)Mina0o (INT1) Posts: 1,309
    edited 29.06.2015
    I agree with Uncle John. As long as your opponent has a chance higher than 0% of winning they might actually win... It's not fun when it happens, I know, but that's how chances work..
  • kulaniko (INT1)kulaniko (INT1) Posts: 41
    edited 29.06.2015
    Mina0o wrote: »
    I agree with Uncle John. As long as your opponent has a chance higher than 0% of winning they might actually win... It's not fun when it happens, I know, but that's how chances work..

    I actually thought GGS would somehow stick to some realistic rules. I mean, sure, I would accept that I would somehow lose if I only have like 40% chance of winning, 50 even... But 81.99 chance of winning...seriously.

    What's the point of even coming up with those figures?

    However, if you put it that way, what can we do. (sigh) :whistling:
  • rocnrobn (US1)rocnrobn (US1) US1 Posts: 259
    edited 29.06.2015
    That's why they are called a "Long shot"...
  • nooca (INT1)nooca (INT1) Posts: 170
    edited 29.06.2015
    Just to add an example to make it easier to understand, because many seem to have problems with the odds; and because the numbers are similar to those in the OP:

    Imagine a simple game of rolling a dice.
    Here are the rules:
    - There is 1 dice with number 1 to 6 (standard dice with 6 sites).
    - You get to throw the dice ONCE. No repeats!
    - You through a "1", you loose. You throw a "2", "3", "4", "5" or "6", you win.
    Nice and simple, yes?

    Now here are your odds:
    - your odds of winning are: 5 out of 6, or 83.33%.
    - your odds of loosing are: 1 out of 6, or 16.67%.

    Similar odds as the horse in the first post, aren't they?
    Now through the dice:
    Of course you won't expect to throw a "1". But can you say, you won't?
    Did someone manipulate the dice, if you do throw a "1"?

    If you do this little game several times in a row, it sometimes might even happen that you throw several "1"s. If you are very unlucky, all your throws might be "1"s. Without anyone doing something to the dice.
  • J-Day (US1)J-Day (US1) Posts: 93
    edited 30.06.2015
    The chances of again rolling a one decrease with each consecutive roll. In this instance it does seem that if there is any chance at all of a lower competitor beating a higher one, it happens way more than the percentage would indicate. After a while of the die giving you nearly impossible statistics, you have to assume the die is the problem. I lose to level tens all the time. I also beat a lot of level forty or mores. It does very much seem as though winning is either arbitrarily and in no way based on the stats or else is counter-intuitive with a horse less likely to win winning consistently. Point, I have been paired up with several level nine horses in the gold league. It seems completely impossible that a level nine horse could even be in the gold league unless the stats are somehow twisted and they are winning far more often than they should as you only advance when you win
  • RunsWivScissors (GB1)RunsWivScissors (GB1) GB1 Posts: 6,633
    edited 30.06.2015
    J-Day2 wrote: »
    It seems completely impossible that a level nine horse could even be in the gold league unless the stats are somehow twisted and they are winning far more often than they should as you only advance when you win

    Its not really the horse that is in the gold league, its the owner. I am in diamond league, but I could set any of my horses to compete in challenges, I could even buy a new one and set that & it would look like a level 0 horse in the diamond league.
  • Yakoska (US1)Yakoska (US1) Posts: 1,631
    edited 30.06.2015
    J-Day2 wrote: »
    The chances of again rolling a one decrease with each consecutive roll.

    This is false. While it is true that the odds of rolling 3 1's in a row is lower than the odds of rolling a single 1, once you HAVE rolled a 1, the odds of a 1 coming up on the next roll is exactly the same as the odds of a one coming up on the previous roll. Then if by chance you do roll a second 1 in a row. Then what is the chance that you roll a 3rd one? Exactly the same as the chance of rolling the first one. Statistics have no memory.

    -Y
  • Lylu (INT1)Lylu (INT1) INT1 Posts: 448
    edited 01.07.2015
    Yakoska wrote: »
    This is false. While it is true that the odds of rolling 3 1's in a row is lower than the odds of rolling a single 1, once you HAVE rolled a 1, the odds of a 1 coming up on the next roll is exactly the same as the odds of a one coming up on the previous roll. Then if by chance you do roll a second 1 in a row. Then what is the chance that you roll a 3rd one? Exactly the same as the chance of rolling the first one. Statistics have no memory.-Y
    This!! so refreshing to see another who understands the statistics (odds) of unique events happening vs a series of events happening. Each die roll (or horse race) is an unique event.
  • Mina0o (INT1)Mina0o (INT1) Posts: 1,309
    edited 01.07.2015
    I also think that psychology plays a role here..
    One has to experience a lot more positive things than negative things to feel like something is good. Do I make sense? Like, those days when your horse seem to be running backwards on three legs all day comes fresher in your mind than those days when it runs faster than the wind, even when the wind days are actually occurring more often than the backward-on three legs-days. And all the other days, that are not extreme in any direction are simply put out of your mind completely..
  • nooca (INT1)nooca (INT1) Posts: 170
    edited 01.07.2015
    :SSigh... And I sought my example was easy to understand and verifiable. Guess I thought wrong.
    But some people just don't understand statistics. They seem to have developed some sort of block against it.;(
    Lylu3 wrote: »
    Yakoska wrote: »
    This is false. While it is true that the odds of rolling 3 1's in a row is lower than the odds of rolling a single 1, once you HAVE rolled a 1, the odds of a 1 coming up on the next roll is exactly the same as the odds of a one coming up on the previous roll. Then if by chance you do roll a second 1 in a row. Then what is the chance that you roll a 3rd one? Exactly the same as the chance of rolling the first one. Statistics have no memory. -Y
    This!! so refreshing to see another who understands the statistics (odds) of unique events happening vs a series of events happening. Each die roll (or horse race) is an unique event.

    Exactly!!

    Mina0o wrote: »
    I also think that psychology plays a role here..
    One has to experience a lot more positive things than negative things to feel like something is good. Do I make sense? Like, those days when your horse seem to be running backwards on three legs all day comes fresher in your mind than those days when it runs faster than the wind, even when the wind days are actually occurring more often than the backward-on three legs-days. And all the other days, that are not extreme in any direction are simply put out of your mind completely..

    Probably!
    Also, running backwards on three legs should be better than on four. :p
    (Sorry. Sometimes I can be picky. :D)
  • J-Day (US1)J-Day (US1) Posts: 93
    edited 02.07.2015
    How am I wrong? The chances of rolling a one decrease with each CONSECUTIVE roll. Your chance of getting three ones in a row is much less than getting any other two numbers after the first one. This is not the same as saying the odds are changing with each roll; this is saying that too many one rolls in a row is unlikely to happen, so it is curious when a one happens with more regularity than the other five numbers put together. Rolling sixty ones in row is statistically possible, but not probable. And anyone watching would be reasonable to assume foul play.

    I didn't consider high ranked players with brand new horses. That makes sense and explains a lot.
  • Mina0o (INT1)Mina0o (INT1) Posts: 1,309
    edited 02.07.2015
    nooca wrote: »
    Also, running backwards on three legs should be better than on four. :p
    (Sorry. Sometimes I can be picky. :D)

    Haha, You have a point. I guess. But a three-legged horse would technically not run at all. No matter if it tried to do it with it's head or tail first :p
  • nooca (INT1)nooca (INT1) Posts: 170
    edited 02.07.2015
    Mina0o wrote: »
    Haha, You have a point. I guess. But a three-legged horse would technically not run at all. No matter if it tried to do it with it's head or tail first :p

    Hmm...
    Seems to be running okay:
    2449042636_1dbb5ed8a4.jpg

    Though is it really three-legged or does it just look that way??(
    Try searching for images of three-legged horses. There're even two-legged ones and what looks like one-legged ones running with jockeys on them.?(

    J-Day2 wrote: »
    How am I wrong? The chances of rolling a one decrease with each CONSECUTIVE roll.

    No!
    Your chances of rolling two 1s in two rolls are lower than of rolling one 1 and one other number, yes. Your chances of rolling three 1s in three rolls are lower than rolling two 1s and one other number and much lower than rolling one 1 and two other numbers, yes. And so on.

    But: Your chances of rolling a 1 next is always the same! One in six! No matter what you rolled before.

    Look: For two rolls you have these possibilities:
    1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6
    2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6
    3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6
    4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6
    5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 5-5 5-6
    6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5 6-6

    Your chances of both rolls being a 1: 1 in 36
    But:
    -the chances of your first roll being a 1 is 1 in 6: 6 out of 36 possibles have a 1 in the first roll position.
    -if your first roll IS a 1, now what are the chances of your second roll being a 1? If your first roll IS a 1, combinations like 2-3 or 4-1 are not possible, only 1-1, 1-2, ... So you have six possibilities, with one with a 1 in the second position. So: if your first roll IS a 1, your chances of rolling a second 1 is 1 in 6!
    - same goes for the case when your first roll IS a 2, or a 3, ... No matter what your first roll is, the chances of your second roll being a 1 is always 1 in 6!

    The chances of all your rolls being a 1 decreases with the number of rolls you can do. But the chances of any single roll being a 1 is always 1 in 6. No matter if it is the first one or last. And no matter if all the rolls before where a 1 or not.
  • RunsWivScissors (GB1)RunsWivScissors (GB1) GB1 Posts: 6,633
    edited 02.07.2015
    haha very good ....No you can`t have a 3 legged horse, it would be put down usually, cos they can stand on 3 legs but they can`t run, though this one is up for a challenge..... http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1024136/Meet-Molly-legged-pony-giving-hope-New-Orleans-years-Katrina.html :thumbsup:
  • Gwendolen (US1)Gwendolen (US1) Posts: 1,268
    edited 02.07.2015
    I just tell my horse she won't get a carrot if she keeps performing that bad! And if it's really bad, I threaten with the whip :p

    It might just be silly superstition, but I feel I do better in the horse contests if I don't do the same discipline twice in a row.

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