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Criticism: What?! How did that Happen? (Horse Stats)
kulaniko (INT1)
Posts: 41
MY ODDS OF WINNING : 81.99
Competitor's Odds of Winning: 18.01
Guess who won?
Comments
18% is almost 1 in 5
This was the 1!
I actually thought GGS would somehow stick to some realistic rules. I mean, sure, I would accept that I would somehow lose if I only have like 40% chance of winning, 50 even... But 81.99 chance of winning...seriously.
What's the point of even coming up with those figures?
However, if you put it that way, what can we do. (sigh) :whistling:
Imagine a simple game of rolling a dice.
Here are the rules:
- There is 1 dice with number 1 to 6 (standard dice with 6 sites).
- You get to throw the dice ONCE. No repeats!
- You through a "1", you loose. You throw a "2", "3", "4", "5" or "6", you win.
Nice and simple, yes?
Now here are your odds:
- your odds of winning are: 5 out of 6, or 83.33%.
- your odds of loosing are: 1 out of 6, or 16.67%.
Similar odds as the horse in the first post, aren't they?
Now through the dice:
Of course you won't expect to throw a "1". But can you say, you won't?
Did someone manipulate the dice, if you do throw a "1"?
If you do this little game several times in a row, it sometimes might even happen that you throw several "1"s. If you are very unlucky, all your throws might be "1"s. Without anyone doing something to the dice.
Its not really the horse that is in the gold league, its the owner. I am in diamond league, but I could set any of my horses to compete in challenges, I could even buy a new one and set that & it would look like a level 0 horse in the diamond league.
This is false. While it is true that the odds of rolling 3 1's in a row is lower than the odds of rolling a single 1, once you HAVE rolled a 1, the odds of a 1 coming up on the next roll is exactly the same as the odds of a one coming up on the previous roll. Then if by chance you do roll a second 1 in a row. Then what is the chance that you roll a 3rd one? Exactly the same as the chance of rolling the first one. Statistics have no memory.
-Y
One has to experience a lot more positive things than negative things to feel like something is good. Do I make sense? Like, those days when your horse seem to be running backwards on three legs all day comes fresher in your mind than those days when it runs faster than the wind, even when the wind days are actually occurring more often than the backward-on three legs-days. And all the other days, that are not extreme in any direction are simply put out of your mind completely..
But some people just don't understand statistics. They seem to have developed some sort of block against it.;(
Exactly!!
Probably!
Also, running backwards on three legs should be better than on four.
(Sorry. Sometimes I can be picky.
I didn't consider high ranked players with brand new horses. That makes sense and explains a lot.
Haha, You have a point. I guess. But a three-legged horse would technically not run at all. No matter if it tried to do it with it's head or tail first
Hmm...
Seems to be running okay:
Though is it really three-legged or does it just look that way??(
Try searching for images of three-legged horses. There're even two-legged ones and what looks like one-legged ones running with jockeys on them.?(
No!
Your chances of rolling two 1s in two rolls are lower than of rolling one 1 and one other number, yes. Your chances of rolling three 1s in three rolls are lower than rolling two 1s and one other number and much lower than rolling one 1 and two other numbers, yes. And so on.
But: Your chances of rolling a 1 next is always the same! One in six! No matter what you rolled before.
Look: For two rolls you have these possibilities:
1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 1-5 1-6
2-1 2-2 2-3 2-4 2-5 2-6
3-1 3-2 3-3 3-4 3-5 3-6
4-1 4-2 4-3 4-4 4-5 4-6
5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4 5-5 5-6
6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-5 6-6
Your chances of both rolls being a 1: 1 in 36
But:
-the chances of your first roll being a 1 is 1 in 6: 6 out of 36 possibles have a 1 in the first roll position.
-if your first roll IS a 1, now what are the chances of your second roll being a 1? If your first roll IS a 1, combinations like 2-3 or 4-1 are not possible, only 1-1, 1-2, ... So you have six possibilities, with one with a 1 in the second position. So: if your first roll IS a 1, your chances of rolling a second 1 is 1 in 6!
- same goes for the case when your first roll IS a 2, or a 3, ... No matter what your first roll is, the chances of your second roll being a 1 is always 1 in 6!
The chances of all your rolls being a 1 decreases with the number of rolls you can do. But the chances of any single roll being a 1 is always 1 in 6. No matter if it is the first one or last. And no matter if all the rolls before where a 1 or not.
It might just be silly superstition, but I feel I do better in the horse contests if I don't do the same discipline twice in a row.