Horse Competition - Whats the point....

liquid8

Whats the point of spending a lot of time and effort training a horse that has an 82% chance of winning only for it to LOOSE. 4 out of the last 5 challenges I have made I have LOST even though I had over an 80% chance of winning.
Confused by those odds.

gio1 (US1)

Could someone please explain how the horse farm challenge works? I challenged someone at a level 10, I'm a 28, and lost. How is it that possible when I'm at a higher level????? Need you for this one Runswithscissors

?(

Yakoska (US1)

If you look at the details of a race it will tell you the odds of your winning. Changes are, at lvl 28 to lvl 10, your odds were pretty good. 90% even. But all that means are, 9 in 10 times your horse would win. There is still that 1 in 10th shot, where you lose.

-Y

gio1 (US1)

thank you for clearing that up for me Yakoska ^^

Helga7 (US1)

Exactly!!   I get to within 6 or 7 points of moving up a level, only to immediately drop back 15 points by the next time I log on.   This is crazy.

CM Latten

The possibility of a 95% chance to succeed is high, but (obviously) not 100% guaranteed I know it sometimes doesn't feel like it, but if you watch all your activity over, say, a week or a few days, you'll notice that it should pan out in the end. 
People easily think that a 9x% chance after a lost match means "next time I HAVE to win", but that's not the case - every single race will be given a new "dice roll", and you may be super lucky on a low percentage, or unlucky on a high one. 

Niryn (INT1)

Don't give up and keep using all your fuel folks. I seemingly lose more than I win as well, but as long as I spend all my fuel every morning I log in, I've been climbing steadily despite the silly losses to lvl 5 horses on my lvl 53.

Brave Ana (GB1)

How is going for you in the last day (~28 and half hours) ?.

My horse didn't win anything today.

I lost 11 times today (44 points)

borana albania (INT1)

I agree , but anyways we can win good prices on tournament challenge. also we dont have to spent much money(if we dont use fuel) so i guess its worth trying.

Artmaker (GB1)

CM Latten said:

every single race will be given a new "dice roll", and you may be super lucky on a low percentage, or unlucky on a high one. 

that's just it.  The whole thing seems nothing more than a dice roll.   I sometimes win against players with real high ranking (guessing that's what the number by their name means.  It's never been explained.)
And other times I lose against someone with zero!  
I don't understand this at all.   Horse racing is not a dice game.  It's training, breeding, etc.
All the training in the world doesn't seem to make a bit of difference.

I'm to the point I just click through until I'm out of the fuel the game gives.  I am NOT spending money on this.  I like the prizes along the way and it seems I make it to about the same point every time.

borana albania (INT1)

Artmaker (GB1) said:

I'm to the point I just click through until I'm out of the fuel the game gives.  I am NOT spending money on this.  I like the prizes along the way and it seems I make it to about the same point every time.

Same here ...no need to spend money.

Uncle John (GB1)

Absolutely no need to spend money.
As long as you race sufficiently (about 1 tank of fuel, 8 races, per day (on GB1)) you will rise to the point in the league that the ability of your horse dictates. More able horses will be above you, less able horses below. If you race more, you will win a few more and move up among more able horses. They will see you as easy meat, you will be challenged lots, beaten lots and be pushed back down to where you belong.  :¬)

CM Latten

Uncle John (GB1) said:

Absolutely no need to spend money.
As long as you race sufficiently (about 1 tank of fuel, 8 races, per day (on GB1)) you will rise to the point in the league that the ability of your horse dictates. More able horses will be above you, less able horses below. If you race more, you will win a few more and move up among more able horses. They will see you as easy meat, you will be challenged lots, beaten lots and be pushed back down to where you belong.  :¬)

Ha
But yeah, that's pretty much how it works (and how it should work). 

sarah74 (GB1)

This horse season seems to have had some adjustments, most of the horses my horse can race are a lot higher lvl than mine, and those challenging my horse are all higher lvl, some almost double my horses lvl., it is like all the lvl 40 horses have suddenly changed to lvl 77's , I think I have seen just 2 horses below my horses lvl . Not that it really matters, I suppose GGS feel they are giving away too many gifts when horses level up, but it just looks a bit too obvious that they changed things.  

RunsWivScissors (GB1)

@sarah74 (GB1)  It is usually hardwork for lower level horses at the start of the season, because all the horses start off in the bronze league, but it should get back to normal after a few days, when the higher horses have moved on. They start off further up in bronze, so it doesn`t take long for them to get out of range & stop showing up so often on challenges.

sarah74 (GB1)

Thank you for the comment, it sounds so much like a GGS comment. I do see the thinking around what you say, time will tell .Actually since the horses started I have noticed the complete opposite to your theory, I often win every race until I get into GOLD. A friend just told me that he or his horse has been challenged 14 times today and lost everyone, now I am talking of a horse that only lost about 14 races all last season ! ! and every one of those 14 challenges the challenger is 15 or more levels above his horse.

RunsWivScissors (GB1)

@sarah74 (GB1)  My main farm has a level 100 horse, but I do also have a smaller one with a level 15 horse & that is definately getting nowhere at the moment. I can use a full tank of fuel & not get a single win & it's been challenged 3x as often as the 100. But you could be right about things being changed, its just hard to tell in the 1st week, until all them big ones move on. I don`t think I have noticed much difference with my 100, seem to be seeing the usual opponents, mixed up with quite a few very low level ones & as usual its more often the cheeky low level ones that beat me if I challenge them lol

DoctorX (INT1)

Hi

How is the horses you compete against determined, from what I have noticed it seems like your horse's level has an influence, but does the previous season ending position also play a roll, because the first season I played I ended in bronze and at the beginning of the new year cup I faced of against similarly ranked opponents.

I ended the new years cup in Platinum with a lv 45 horse, but now I am struggling because I generally win 1 or 2 races per 10 due to the fact that I am constantly competing against level 65 - 100 competitors  

CM Latten

The competition is selected by their position in an internal overall ranking, we pick opponents from roughly 50~ish positions above and below you. Less positions on this ranking wouldn't make much sense, because the ranking's always changing and we'd have a way more random situation than with more leeway. 

So, the better you get and the higher up you rank, the more difficult your opponents will be as well.

Kamilcom (GB1)

@sarah74 (GB1)  I think what you are experiencing may quite easily be a result of increasing competition. The longer the horse thing goes, the more high level horses there are, the more difficult it is for a low level / novice horse. On top of that, if a high level player stops playing - and we've seen many such leaving the game for eloquently and amply described reasons - or if they play just a little, their high level horse will not progress up through leagues or progress slowly and as a result stay in the reach of low level horses for challenges in one or both directions. I can't exclude artificial change in horse racing mechanisms as GGS is notorious for messing things up all the time without warning, but would look for natural explanations first anyway. It was to be expected that horse racing will not remain the same as when started afresh and will reflect the ineviteable changes in overall racing pool makeup and horse owners behaviour.

PCA (GB1)

FYI 

 I have noticed that a few players I know have the wrong horse up to be challenged, instead of the one they selected. 

I have messaged to warn them, they tried to change selection again, some sent messages to support

To check whether this is true or not in your case you need to open the notice board and check individual messages to see which of your horses was challenged

This seems a different problem than the one we experienced a couple tournaments ago.

  

sarah74 (GB1)

Hmmm I like some of the idea's and of course a level 25 horse competing against a level 92 horse, is well within the GGS 50 ish scale lol.  hmmmm 67 is 50 ish .. As a few have mentioned there are not as many high levels challenging now, and of course the excuse of getting one's own horse higher will bring higher level opponents does not wash correctly. Selecting a horse  over or above your level by 50 levels is very steep, its almost covering the levels by 100% a level 50 horse can have an opponent between level 0 and level 100  ! or if we take the 50 ish as up to 67.  a level 67 can get between lvl 0 and lvl 134 !! It does seem strange that for a few seasons a horse can win almost all races and challenges and then all of a sudden it loses 14 in a row

RunsWivScissors (GB1)

@sarah74 (GB1)  Latten didn`t say 50 levels higher or lower than the level of your horse, he said 50 positions on the rankings, which is a different kettle of fish. Mostly horses close on rankings are of a similar breeding level or quality - you could have one that is a much higher level than you, but much lower quality, that would stay around the same position on the rankings. The highest horses start off at the top of the bronze league & should (in theory) move out of range of the lower horses fairly quickly, but there may be some that start late or don`t start the season, that could get caught up by some lower horses & they would appear on their challenges as they pass them.

Kamilcom (GB1)

......about 50 - as Sciss says..................

Not much happening that could not be explained by the above described game mechanics and race pool/players behaviour shifts plus random bluff. Only one thing seems weird: as if the game was controlling players position regardles what oponents level they compete against. After a long string of wins a setback is likely to come even when competing against levels which technically should be beaten most of the time. It almost seems as if there was another separate control mechanism on top of that natural level vs level chances, which takes over when level to level results get out of range ........ Which would make the horse racing mechanism more dumb and predictable. And pretty much the only unpredictable thing left would be the tweaks that GGS people make secretly behind the sceen. Although they are in a way predictable too.

gizmo22 (AU1)

Well my level 57 horse just lost to a level 9 so it seems level is pointless and what really decides whether u win or lose is that overall win/loss percentage for that day. Good thing there's some decent rewards available because I wouldnt even bother with this flawed event otherwise.

ABU SAEED (IN1)

Why this horse quality and competition results are so random?

Die Rina Mausie (AU1)

i would love to have my old horses back after i discovered after breeding that they are gone because I put so much in them

Kamilcom (GB1)

ABU SAEED (IN1) said:

Why this horse quality and competition results are so random?

Cause GGS is a random-lover and like putting themselves up as  "smart". Unpredictability is supposed to help the cause. As Latten put it, they don't want the game to be predictable.  Now go figure. That gives them an unbeatable universal excuse for any mess up in their game you might encounter.

Nevertheless, if you read my previous speculative post, in this case it looks like they've beaten themselves as in the long run after you've done a few seasons the horse racing seems predictable to the point of being boring.

But watch out for secret tweaks behind the scenes. What's true today may not be so tomorrow.

RunsWivScissors (GB1)

Die Rina Mausie (AU1) said:

i would love to have my old horses back after i discovered after breeding that they are gone because I put so much in them

@Die Rina Mausie (AU1)  I know it seems that you somehow lost out when you 1st breed 2 horses, but if you had done lots of training on them & it had got to the point where you needed a lot of points to get them to the next level, then they really were of no further use to you. When you breed them, you get a new horse of the same level as they were, except the new one now only needs a few points to reach the next level, so you can train that one up another 10+ levels for ths same amount of horseshoes & time that it would have taken to get the old horses up even 1 more level.

Train your new horse up until training gets too slow, then get 2 more new ones & train/breed them to make another one to train higher & then breed that one with the new one you have just trained & then their baby will be able to get you to an even higher level. Rinse & repeat until you have a level 100 horse.

ABU SAEED (IN1)

Kamilcom (GB1) said:

Cause GGS is a random-lover and like putting themselves up as  "smart". Unpredictability is supposed to help the cause. As Latten put it, they don't want the game to be predictable.  Now go figure. That gives them an unbeatable universal excuse for any mess up in their game you might encounter.

Nevertheless, if you read my previous speculative post, in this case it looks like they've beaten themselves as in the long run after you've done a few seasons the horse racing seems predictable to the point of being boring.

But watch out for secret tweaks behind the scenes. What's true today may not be so tomorrow.

but randomness upto certain level is acceptable.
my 57 level horse looses against 40+ and win against 90+....WTH!  

RunsWivScissors (GB1)

Its not really that surprising when horses with low odds win. Even a 6% chance may seem like it shouldn`t win, but if you think of it like, you have a bag with 100 balls in it, 6 white & 94 black & you pick a ball at random, each ball has the exact same 1 in 100 chance of being picked. Overall, there are more available chances for a black ball to be picked, but if you put the ball back each time & pick another one, it is possible to pick a white ball everytime, unlikely, but still possible.