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Monty's Regular WoF

We've all noticed a reduction in GMLs across the board, but Monty has hit an all-time low. Used to be (way back), 100 spins would net you a couple.  Then, it took more spins to get the same result.  Last time, I used about 230 tokens and received 3 (2 from mystery boxes),  Today, I had about 300 spins and nada.  zip. zilch. zero.  color me sad.

Comments

  • ninjahuman (AU1)ninjahuman (AU1) AU1 Posts: 2,526
    edited 10.05.2020
    We've all noticed a reduction in GMLs across the board, but Monty has hit an all-time low. Used to be (way back), 100 spins would net you a couple.  Then, it took more spins to get the same result.  Last time, I used about 230 tokens and received 3 (2 from mystery boxes),  Today, I had about 300 spins and nada.  zip. zilch. zero.  color me sad.
    It's never guaranteed how many GMLs you will get for the amount of tokens used. Presuming the probability of collecting a GML is around 1% per token used, the probability of not getting one over 300 spins is around 5% which will come up sometimes. Because it's a set probability, we can expect that it is likely to get a certain amount of GMLs within a certain number of spins, but it is never guaranteed. So approximately 95% of the time you would have received at least one GML from using 300 tokens but it appears you got the unlucky 5% that time that didn't get one from that amount of spins.

    Use this to calculate the probability of receiving at least one GML per n spins:



    And this to calculate the probability of receiving x GMLs from n spins:



    (I know that the GMLs can only be collected from bonus spins but this can help give an approximate idea.)

    I hope that helps explain why you no GMLs from those 300 spins. It's never guaranteed because there is always a chance on every spin that you won't get one. You can expect to receive a certain amount over time, but it can never be guaranteed.
    Post edited by ninjahuman (AU1) on
  • artful (US1)artful (US1) US1 Posts: 6,617
    We've all noticed a reduction in GMLs across the board, but Monty has hit an all-time low. Used to be (way back), 100 spins would net you a couple.  Then, it took more spins to get the same result.  Last time, I used about 230 tokens and received 3 (2 from mystery boxes),  Today, I had about 300 spins and nada.  zip. zilch. zero.  color me sad.
    It's never guaranteed how many GMLs you will get for the amount of tokens used. Presuming the probability of collecting a GML is around 1% per token used, the probability of not getting one over 300 spins is around 5% which will come up sometimes. Because it's a set probability, we can expect that it is likely to get a certain amount of GMLs within a certain number of spins, but it is never guaranteed. So approximately 95% of the time you would have received at least one GML from using 300 tokens but it appears you got the unlucky 5% that time that didn't get one from that amount of spins.

    Use this to calculate the probability of receiving at least one GML per n spins:



    And this to calculate the probability of receiving x GMLs from n spins:



    (I know that the GMLs can only be collected from bonus spins but this can help give an approximate idea.)

    I hope that helps explain why you no GMLs from those 300 spins. It's never guaranteed because there is always a chance on every spin that you won't get one. You can expect to receive a certain amount over time, but it can never be guaranteed.
    I understand that, but in all my years of playing the wheel, I have always walked away with several, even if only spinning 100 times. There obviously is a reduction of the odds from where it used to be. The past year or so, I've waited to spin until I've had at least 200 -- again, always walked away with at least 3 or more. First time ever coming up empty..  Methinks some rebalancing is going on.  I'm sure you've noticed the increasing difficulty in obtaining them elsewhere in the game, too. 
  • ninjahuman (AU1)ninjahuman (AU1) AU1 Posts: 2,526
    I understand that, but in all my years of playing the wheel, I have always walked away with several, even if only spinning 100 times. There obviously is a reduction of the odds from where it used to be. The past year or so, I've waited to spin until I've had at least 200 -- again, always walked away with at least 3 or more. First time ever coming up empty..  Methinks some rebalancing is going on.  I'm sure you've noticed the increasing difficulty in obtaining them elsewhere in the game, too. 
    From what you have said, the more unusual thing is that you said you have received multiple GMLs many times from 100 or more spins. Just checking, are you counting the GMLs from the mystery boxes as well?

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